(5). MACROECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
Questions about the topics within the subject area of Macroeconomics and International Economics should be directed to: Christian Kronborg, Department of Business and Economics, e-mail: cka@sam.sdu.dk
All topics in this subject area can be written in English or Danish.
5.3 Does the extensive margin matter? The role of childlessness during the historical fertility transition
The fertility transition that countries in North America and Europe experienced during the 19th and 20th centuries is regarded as one of the most important determinants of rapid and sustainable long-run growth. Falling fertility rates allowed the transition from a Malthusian regime, where income per capita was roughly constant, to a regime with lower population growth and higher living standards. Economists have offered a wide range of explanations for the historical fertility transition, but childlessness was not one them. Indeed, childlessness was considered to be rare and not an economically relevant factor during this period. Recent research demonstrated that at least for the United States, this belief is mistaken. Based on this new evidence, students should explore whether childlessness during the historical fertility transition was solely a US phenomenon or also quite common in Western Europe and Scandinavia. It would be of particular interest to investigate whether mainly economic factors, such as better opportunities for women in the labor market, better access to schools, or the introduction of child labor laws, or other non-economic factors, such as changes in cultural norms, contributed to the surge in childlessness in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries.
Literature:
Aaronson, D., Lange, F. and Mazumder, B., 2014. Fertility transitions along the extensive and intensive margins. American Economic Review, 104(11), pp.3701-24.
Baudin, T., De la Croix, D. and Gobbi, P.E., 2015. Fertility and childlessness in the United States. American Economic Review, 105(6), pp.1852-82.
Rowland, Donald T., 2007. “Historical Trends in Childlessness.” Journal of Family Issues 28 (10): 1311–37.
5.4 Economic Growth and Income Convergence: Combining a Theoretical Modelling Perspective with an Application
The economic growth performance of a single country or region vis-à-vis a larger benchmark group of countries or regions is typically seen as a key structural indicator for assessing long- run development and national or regional competitiveness. This poses the question: Which factors actually drive economic growth and development in the long-run? The purpose of this project is of a dual nature: Firstly, the bachelor student is expected to classify and describe the different theories of economic growth, which have been proposed in the field of Macroeconomics. To this end, the student shall be able to identify the specific driving forces of growth, which are highlighted by the different theories such as the neoclassical and endogenous growth model, and shall also make statements about the different model predictions with regard to the degree of income convergence across the set of countries or regions. Secondly, the bachelor student shall apply these growth theoretical foundations to an empirical application of own choice. An example for such an application may be the assessment of growth and convergence for a large data set of national economies throughout the last century. Alternatively, the project may analyse regional growth and convergence within a large economic area such as the European Union. To this end, also the role of policies (such as the EU structural funds) aiming at fostering interregional income convergence may be assessed empirically.
Literature
Barro, R.; Sala-i-Martin, X. (2003): “Economic Growth”, 2nd Edition, MIT Press.
Mankiw, G.; Romer, D.; Weil, D. (1992): „A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth“, in: Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2): 407-437.
5.5 Economic Development by Decentralizing Government Employment
Urbanization is a global trend in terms of economic development stressing agglomeration economics. This has fostered concerns of economic inequality across geographies. A suggested policy measure in that regard is the decentralization of government employment. This has been argued to result in possible crowding-out and multiplier effects for studies based in the UK. A series of review in the UK have resulted in decentralization of a large number of government employed particularly following the most recent Lyons Review. Most recently, the Danish government has suggested a decentralization of about 3900 government jobs proposing that this might be a first step to secure economic development across Danish regions (see e.g. http://politik.tv2.dk/2015-10-01-faa-det-fulde- overblik-her-er-de-statslige-job-der-skal-flyttes). This asks the question, to which extent the lessons from UK studies can be implied directly into a Danish context to assess the policy of the Danish Government reflecting on differences in housing markets, commuting propensities and labor market regulations. What can be expected from an ex ante perspective from such policies in a Danish context?
Literature:
Faggio, G., 2015. Relocation of Public Sector Workers: Evaluating a place-based policy. SERC Discussion Paper 155, http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/textonly/SERC/publications/download/sercdp0155.pdf
Faggio, G., Overman, H., 2014. The Effect of Public Sector Employment on Local Labour Markets, Journal of Urban Economics 79, 91–107.
5.6 Mest Begunstigelsesprincippet (Most Favored Nation Principle) i GATT/WTO- systemet
Et bærende princip for handelsliberalisering i WTO er ’mest begunstigelses princippet’, der forpligtet medlemslande til at udstrække bilaterale toldnedsættelser til alle medlemslade af WTO. Derved undgås diskriminerende handelsliberalisering. Princippet kan gøres til genstand for flere interessante økonomiske analyser f. eks af princippets velfærdsteoretiske aspekter, ’free rider’ problemet for de lande, der uden modydelser kan eksportere til lavere toldsatser. På det administrative plan kan analyseres landes muligheder for manipulation med princippet gennem eksempelvis afgrænsningen af varebegrebet eller henvisning til national sikkerhed. Emnet relatere sig til en stadig ændring i toldsatser mellem lande – eksempelvis USA’s forhøjelser overfor Kina og EU i 2018-2019, hvorvidt disse følger MFN princippet og de forventede velfærdskonsekvenser. Desuden relaterer emnet sig til relationen mellem ’mest begunstigelses princippet’ i forhold til institutioner til regional handelsintegration som NAFTA, EU og CPTPP. Disse forhold kan empirisk undersøges via ’gravitations ligningen’ og lignende.
Litteratur:
Horn H., og P.C Mavroidis (2001), ‘Economic and Legal Aspects of the Most Favored Nation Clause’, European Journal of Political Economy, 17, pp. 233-279.
Schwartz W.F. og A.O. Sykes, (1996), ‘Towards a Positive Theory of the Most Favored Nation Obligation and its Exceptions in the WTO/GATT system’, International Review of Law and Economics, 16, pp. 27-51.
Forudsætter: Det vil være en fordel at have fulgt faget ”International Økonomi”.
5.7 Finanskrise og fastkurspolitik: Forværrede fastkurspolitikken finanskrisen i Danmark?
Danmark skulle forsvare fastkurspolitikken i efteråret 2008. Midt under den værste økonomiske krise verden har set siden den store depression i 1930erne, og på et tidspunkt, hvor de andre centralbanker sendte renterne i gulvet i et forsøg på at skabe vækst, hævede den danske nationalbank renten. Det var nødvendigt for at forsvare kronen. Skræmte investorer var begyndt at sælge deres danske værdipapirer for at søge sikker havn i mere likvide euroværdipapirer. Dette pressede kronekursen ned, og Nationalbanken blev derfor tvunget til at udvide rentespændet til ECB med hele 1,75 procentpoint for at gøre de danske værdipapirer mere attraktive. Det var først i slutningen af 2009, at rentespændet til ECB igen blev normaliseret. At hæve renten midt under den værste globale finanskrise i 70 år er selvsagt uheldigt. I 1931 (midt under den store depression) hævede den amerikanske centralbank også renten for at forsvare guldfoden (datidens fastkurssystem), og det er anerkendt blandt økonomiske historikere, at denne rentestigning var med til at forstærke depressionen i den amerikanske økonomi. På samme vis var den danske rentestigning i efteråret 2008 og den langvarige forøgelse af rentespændet over for eurozonen utvivlsomt medvirkende til, at krisen blev både dyb og lang i Danmark. I det danske tilfælde havde rentestigningen formentlig en ekstra negativ gennemslagskraft sammenlignet med USA i 1930erne. Det skyldes, at introduktionen af rentetilpasningslån havde gjort den danske økonomi særdeles følsom over for stigninger i renten. Omkring syv-otte pct. af de danske familier skulle refinansiere i slutningen af 2008, og den usikkerhed, der var omkring renten, fik formentlig mange af disse familier til at skære ind til benet. Det kan muligvis forklare, at nedgangen i dansk økonomi i 2008-2009 blev ekstra dyb.
Litteratur:
Andersen, T.B., & N. Malchow-Møller, Økonomer: Vækstkrise forværret af fast kronekurs, Berlingske Business, 25-04-2016
Andersen, T.B., & N. Malchow-Møller, Innovations in mortgage finance and the onset of the Great Recession in a small open economy with a euro peg, Comparative Economic Studies 57: 711-734, 2015
5.8 Flydende versus faste valutakurser: En empirisk undersøgelse
Empiriske studier har dokumenteret, at lande med faste valutakurser har klaret sig meget dårligere gennem finanskrisen end lande med flydende valutakurser. Et forsigtigt skøn er, at de faste valutakurser har barberet omkring et procentpoint af væksten hvert år i perioden 2008-13. Ny forskning viser også, at recessioner typisk er efterfulgt af perioder med vedvarende lave BNP-niveauer og vækstrater. Forklaringen er, at recessioner kan forårsage kronisk skade på økonomien. Med et låneord fra fysik benævnes dette fænomen ”hysteresis”. Det vil derfor være interessant at opdatere eksisterende studier af sammenhængen mellem valutakursregime og vækst efter krisen med de nyeste data for at undersøge om forskellen i økonomiske vækst mellem 2008-13 stadigvæk kan ses i data, når man kigger på perioden 2008-17.
Litteratur:
T.B., Andersen, N. Malchow-Møller & J. Nordvig, Inflation targeting and macroeconomic performance since the Great Recession, Oxford Economic Papers 67: 598-613, 2015
5.9 Er globaliseringsprocessen gået i stå?
Globalisering er et mangesidigt fænomen, der bredt udtrykker, at de enkelte landes økonomier blevet mere gensidige afhængige. Drivkræfterne bag globaliseringen er et fald i barriererne for mobilitet af varer, tjenester, serviceydelser og finans- og realkapital. Globaliseringsprocessen har historisk forløbet uens med perioder af tilbageslag. Der er tegn på, at den finansielle krise og recessionen i årene efter 2007 har bremset globaliseringen sammenlignet med årene forud. Dette kunne tolkes som at vi har nået en grænse for globalisering. Temaerne for det enkelte projekt kunne bl.a. være: (1) ’Udviklingen i verdenshandelen fra 1945’, (2) ’Eurokrisen og kapitalmobiliteten i EU’, (3) ’Migrationen i EU’, (4)’Ny-protektionismens instrumenter’ eller (5) ’Grænser for globalisering’
Litteratur:
Rodrik, D. (1997): Has Globalization Gone Too Far? Institute for International Economics, https://piie.com/bookstore/has-globalization-gone-too-far
Subramanian A. og M. Kessler (2013): ’The Hyperglobalization og Trade and Its Future’, Working Paper 13-6, Washington, Peterson Institute for International Economics. Er frit tilgængeligt på nettet.
Forudsætter: Det vil være en fordel at have fulgt faget ”International Økonomi”.
5.10 Har den fælles mønt stimuleret handelen mellem eurolandene?
Den fælles mønt fjerner valutakursusikkerheden i samhandelen mellem eurolandene. Da virksomhederne er riskoaverse, skulle man forvente at euroen har stimuleret handelen mellem Eurolandene. Spørgsmålet er imidlertid, om en sådan effekt kan spores i årene efter introduktionen af Euroen. Udgangspunktet for analysen kan være det teoretiske grundlag for en sammenhæng mellem valutakursusikkerhed og handel. Dernæst kan analyseres empirisk, hvorvidt der kan spores en effekt på handelen mellem Eurolandene af den fælles mønt. En ramme for den empiriske analyse kan være gravitationsmodellen med en dummy variable for medlemskab af Euroen. Samtidig kunne analysen inddrage den stigende tendens til e-handel internationalt og virtuelle valuta og hvorvidt dette underbygger eller forringer betydningen af en fælles mønt.
Litteratur:
ECB (2015): Virtual currency schemes – a further analysis. ECB, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/virtualcurrencyschemesen.pdf
Frankel, J. and Rose, A. (1998) ‘The endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria’ Economic Journal , 108, pp. 1009-1025.
De Grauwe, P. and Mongelli, F. (2005), Endogeneities of Optimum Currency Areas: What Brings Countries Sharing a Single Currency Closer Together?’ Working Pape, no. 468, European Central Bank, April.
5.11 Den demografiske udfordring i EU
Fertiliteten er meget lav i EU-landene, og før den seneste migrationsbølge fra lande uden for EU peger udviklingen mod en betydelig befolkningstilbagegang i flere medlemsstater. Aldersfordelingen vil samtidig forskydes mod en mindre andel af befolkningen i de aldersklasser, der traditionelt er i arbejde, og dermed er der en voksende bekymring over udsigten til et svindende skattegrundlag. Skulle disse forventninger blive til virkelighed, vil det få vidtrækkende følger for landenes økonomier. Især må der forudses negative virkninger på den generelle vækst samt den offentlige sektors muligheder for at finansiere sine aktiviteter.
Det vil være interessant, at få belyst disse spørgsmål omkring perspektiverne for den demografiske udvikling og de økonomiske konsekvenser, der kunne følge af den beskrevne udvikling. Dette kan basere sig på migration i de seneste demografiske prognoser eller alternativt med fokus på de økonomiske konsekvenser den demografiske udvikling givet de foreliggende prognoser.
Litteratur:
EU-Commission (2015): ‘The 2015 Ageing Report: Economic and Budgetary Projections for the 28 Member States‘, European Economy, No.3.
5.12 Flervareproduktion og international handelsteori
Det er åbenlyst, at mange virksomheder producerer mere end en vare samtidig med at virksomhederne deltager i international handel med disse produkter. På den baggrund er det forbavsende, at flervare-producerende virksomheder kun har en ringe plads i litteraturen om internationale handelsteori. I de senere år er der dog kommet interessante bidrag med flervareproduktion og handel baseret på modeller med oligopol eller monopolistisk konkurrence. En analyse med enten hovedvægten på en teoretisk modellering eller på en empirisk analyse af graden af flervarefabrikation i en stadig mere globaliseret økonomi kunne være et bidrag for at belyse den komplekse valg virksomheder med produktion af flere vare står overfor i en stadig mere international økonomi.
Litteratur:
En indgangsvinkel til literature kunne være artiklen Bernard, A.B., S., Redding and P. Schott (2010), ’Multiple- product Firms and Product Switching’, American Economic Review, 100 (1), 70-97 samt artiklen Eckel, C. And
P.J. Neary (2010), Multi-product Firms and Flexible Manufacturing in the Global Economy’, Review of Economic Studies 77, (1) 188-217.
Forudsætter: Det vil være en fordel at have fulgt faget ”International Økonomi”.
5.13 The role of cohort factors in health and income development
Health status, longevity and productivity for people living today is determined not only by contemporary factors but also by living conditions and events occurred earlier in life. The so-called “developmental origins” hypothesis suggests that the entire sequence of events and resources from prenatal through childhood (probably until age 18) largely influences who we are today and hence, current population. In economic history, these factors are called cohort factors since they relate to a group of people born in a particular period while other people are unaffected. The empirical studies have shown that disease outbreaks, wars, famines, health interventions and family conditions in childhood in different contexts are important for later life. Yet, many factors and contexts remain understudied, including what particular ages in childhood and adolescence are important for specific insults. This phenomenon can be studied in any developed or developing country and while looking at one particular or many aspects of family conditions or surroundings. It is also interesting to study the role of cohort factors in comparison to that of contemporary, period, factors or events in people’s lives.
Literature:
Almond, Douglas, Janet Currie, and Valentina Duque. 2018. “Childhood Circumstances and Adult Outcomes: Act II.” Journal of Economic Literature 56 (4): 1360–1446.
Bleakley, Hoyt. 2010. “Health, Human Capital, and Development.” Annual Review of Economics September (2):283–310.
Ferrie, Joseph, and Karen Rolf. 2011. “Socioeconomic status in childhood and health after age 70: A new longitudinal analysis for the U.S., 1895–2005.” Explorations in Economic History 48: 445–460.
Lazuka, Volha 2020. “Infant Health and Later-Life Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from the Introduction of Sulpha Antibiotics in Sweden.” Journal of Human Resources 55 (2): 660–98.