Makroøkonomi og International økonomi

(5). MACROECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS

Questions about the topics within the subject area of Macroeconomics and International Economics should be directed to: Peter Sandholt Jensen, Department of Business and Economics, e-mail: psj@sam.sdu.dk

All topics in this subject area can be written in English or Danish.

5.1 Den store depression

Den store depression i 1930’erne står som den vel nok mest centrale makroøkonomiske begivenhed i det 20 århundrede. Depression kan faktisk siges at have givet anledning til fremkomsten af makroøkonomi som en selvstændig disciplin. Desuden var læren fra depression helt afgørende for udformningen af krisepolitikker i forbindelse med krisen i 2008; direktøren for den amerikanske centralbank, Ben Bernanke, var netop også ekspert på depressionen. De store spørgsmål som kan danne ramme for et BA projekt er følgende: Hvad forårsagede krisen, hvorfor blev den så dyb og langvarig, hvorfor spredte den sig globalt, og hvad afsluttede den?
Litteratur:
Romer, C., 1993. The Nation in Depression. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 7(3), 19-39

5.2 Kolonitidens indflydelse på den tredje verdens fattigdom

Mange af den vestlige verdens tidligere kolonier er i dag præget af stor fattigdom og manglende økonomisk udvikling. Ligger kimen til den tredje verdens manglende økonomiske formåen i kolonitiden? Skal vi se på den vestlige verdens hidtidige udnyttelse (udpining) af koloniernes ressourcer eller introduktionen af vestlige institutioner i strid med traditionelle kulturelle samfundsnormer, som bagvedliggende, men fundamentale årsager til den tredje verdens manglende udvikling i dag? Hvis den tredje verdens fattigdom har stærke rødder i kolonitiden, hvilke samfundsøkonomiske konsekvenser bør det så have for den vestlige verden? Hvilke former for kompensation bør vi tilbyde den tredje verden i forhold til, hvad vi tilbyder i dag?

Litteratur: 
Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson (2001): The colonial original of comparative development: an empirical investigation, the American Economic Review 91, 1369-1401. 

Nunn (2008): The long term effects of Africa's slave trade, the Quarterly Journal of Economics 123, 139-176.

5.3 Does the extensive margin matter? The role of childlessness during the historical fertility transition

The fertility transition that countries in North America and Europe experienced during the 19th and 20th centuries is regarded as one of the most important determinants of rapid and sustainable long-run growth. Falling fertility rates allowed the transition from a Malthusian regime, where income per capita was roughly constant, to a regime with lower population growth and higher living standards. Economists have offered a wide range of explanations for the historical fertility transition, but childlessness was not one them. Indeed, childlessness was considered to be rare and not an economically relevant factor during this period. Recent research demonstrated that at least for the United States, this belief is mistaken. Based on this new evidence, students should explore whether childlessness during the historical fertility transition was solely a US phenomenon or also quite common in Western Europe and Scandinavia. It would be of particular interest to investigate whether mainly economic factors, such as better opportunities for women in the labor market, better access to schools, or the introduction of child labor laws, or other non-economic factors, such as changes in cultural norms, contributed to the surge in childlessness in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. 
Literature:
Aaronson, D., Lange, F. and Mazumder, B., 2014. Fertility transitions along the extensive and intensive margins. American Economic Review, 104(11), pp.3701-24.
Baudin, T., De la Croix, D. and Gobbi, P.E., 2015. Fertility and childlessness in the United States. American Economic Review, 105(6), pp.1852-82.
Rowland, Donald T., 2007. “Historical Trends in Childlessness.” Journal of Family Issues 28 (10): 1311–37.



5.4 Geography of artistic activity: Searching for determinants

Artistic activity has seen remarkable geographic clustering throughout history. Little is however known on the determinants of these clustering patterns. Why was, for example, Paris so important for classical composers in the 19th century, whereas Amsterdam, an equally wealthy, large city, played hardly a role within the field of music. For a sample of European cities, student’s research should explore the extent and variety of:
1. relevant cultural infrastructure (e.g. concert halls),
2. related supply industries (e.g. sheet music producers),
3. educational facilitates (e.g. music conservatories), etc.
Literature:
Birth Location, Migration and Clustering of Important Composers: Historical Patterns, joint with John O'Hagan,
Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History, 2010, 43(2): 81-91.
Historical Patterns Based on Automatically Extracted Data: the Case of Classical Composers, joint with John O'Hagan (TCD), Historical Social Research (Section 'Cliometrics'), 2012, 37(2): 298-314.

5.5 CREATIVITY - What determines it and how can we support it?

Creativity is “driving the economy, reshaping entire industries and stimulating inclusive growth” (OECD, 2014). Creative and cultural sectors are seen as “the key ingredient for job creation, innovation and trade” (UNCTAD, 2010) and are believed to constitute opportunities for developing countries to leapfrog into emerging high-growth areas of the world economy. The presence of creative people is conducive to economic development (e.g., Florida, 2002) and is correlated with city growth (Gergaud, 2016). The role of creativity is recognized by Danish authorities, who have the ambition to create Europe’s best environment for stimulating the growth of creative sectors and believe that this may benefit not only the economy but also the environment (Erhvervsstyrelsen, 2013).
Despite the remarkable importance of creativity, social science research has largely refrained from studying it. Student’s theses could investigate the long-term development, geographic coverage, and individual motivations to engage in creative activity, as well as how human interplay relates to these dynamics.
Literature:
Erhvervsstyrelsen, Erhvervs- og Vækstministeriet. Vækstplan for kreative erhverv og design, 2013.
Florida, Richard, The rise of the creative class: And how it's transforming work, leisure, community, and everyday life, New York: Basic Books, 2002.
Gergaud, Olivier, Morgane Laouenan and Etienne Wasmer, “A Brief History of Human Time: Exploring a database of notable people,” Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers No 2016-03, 2016.
OECD, Resilient Economies for Inclusive Societies, Paris: OECD, 2014.
UNCTAD, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Creative Economy Report 2010. Creative Economy: A Feasible Development Option. Geneva: United Nations, 2010.

5.6 Agriculture, Development, and the Industrialization Process

To look at the role of agriculture for development, and in particular the industrialization process. Agriculture’s role here is usually considered to be to: 1) Increase productivity, so workers can move to the towns; 2) Provide capital for urban occupations through saving; 3) Earn foreign currency, so machines etc. can be bought from abroad; and 4) Provide a market for domestic manufactures. The project might for example examine those claims and look at examples of countries that have broken the mold by developing with agriculture leading the way. Denmark is of particular interest here.
Literature:
Broadberry, S. and K.H. O’Rourke eds. (2010). The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe, Volume 1: 1700-1870. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, Chapter 6
Henriksen, I. (1993). ‘The transformation of Danish agriculture’ in K.G. Persson (ed.). The Economic Development of Denmark and Norway since 1870. Aldershot: Edward Elgar
Papers by Paul Sharp and others on Denmark’s economic history, see: www.keynes.dk

5.7 Wine Economics

The project might look at any of the topics within the emerging field of wine economics. The focus can be on the microeconomic level, for example regarding the organizations involved in producing and marketing wine, and what determines the price and consumption of wine. It is often the case that the price of a bottle of wine is determined by much more than its physical qualities. Often the reputation of a wine is just as important. Moreover, a consumer’s utility from a glass of wine, as reflected by the ratings given by tasters, often depends very much on what information they have about the wine. On the macroeconomic level, it is possible to work on the international market for wine, for example. Much interesting work has been done recently on the economic history of wine markets. The modern day regulation of wine industries is another possible topic.
Literature:
See the Journal of Wine Economics.
Duncan, A. & Greenaway, D. (2008). The Economics of Wine – Introduction. Economic Journal 118:529, pp. F137-F260 (This special edition of the Economic Journal contains several other papers on wine economics.) Nye, J.V.C. (2007). War, Wine, and Taxes: The Political Economy of Anglo-French Trade, 1689-1900. Princeton University Press
Persson, K.G. & Sharp, P.R. (2007). The Cost of Ignorance: Reputational Rents in the Market for Tuscan Reds. Department of Economics Discussion Paper No. 07-11
Persson, K.G. & Sharp, P.R. (2007). The Cost of Ignorance: Reputational Rents in the Market for Tuscan Reds. Department of Economics Discussion Paper No. 07-11

5.8 Economic Growth and Income Convergence: Combining a Theoretical Modelling Perspective with an Application

The economic growth performance of a single country or region vis-à-vis a larger benchmark group of countries or regions is typically seen as a key structural indicator for assessing long- run development and national or regional competitiveness. This poses the question: Which factors actually drive economic growth and development in the long-run? The purpose of this project is of a dual nature: Firstly, the bachelor student is expected to classify and describe the different theories of economic growth, which have been proposed in the field of Macroeconomics. To this end, the student shall be able to identify the specific driving forces of growth, which are highlighted by the different theories such as the neoclassical and endogenous growth model, and shall also make statements about the different model predictions with regard to the degree of income convergence across the set of countries or regions. Secondly, the bachelor student shall apply these growth theoretical foundations to an empirical application of own choice. An example for such an application may be the assessment of growth and convergence for a large data set of national economies throughout the last century. Alternatively, the project may analyse regional growth and convergence within a large economic area such as the European Union. To this end, also the role of policies (such as the EU structural funds) aiming at fostering interregional income convergence may be assessed empirically.
Literature
Barro, R.; Sala-i-Martin, X. (2003): “Economic Growth”, 2nd Edition, MIT Press.
Mankiw, G.; Romer, D.; Weil, D. (1992): „A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth“, in: Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2): 407-437.

5.9 Sundhed og langsigtet økonomisk udvikling

Er sundere befolkninger også lig med rigere befolkninger? Projektet kunne indeholde en undersøgelse af sammenhængen mellem mål for sundhed som forventet levetid og BNP capita eller undersøge indførslen af medicinske teknologier på sundhed og udvikling. Konkrete eksempler ville inkludere sammenhængen mellem fremkomsten af moderne medicin og uddannelse og udvikling. Alternativt kunne man kigge på indførslen af offentlige goder som påvirker sundhed som f.eks. hospitaler, rent vand osv.
Litteratur:
Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S. (2007). Disease and development: The effect of life expectancy on economic growth. Journal of Political Economy 115(6), 925-985.
Cutler, D., Miller, G. (2005). THE ROLE OF PUBLIC HEALTH IMPROVEMENTS IN HEALTH ADVANCES: THE TWENTIETH-CENTURY UNITED STATES. Demography.
Weil, D.N. (2009). Health and Economic Growth. Durlauf, S.N., Aghion P. (eds.) Handbook of Economic Growth, North-Holland, Netherlands.

5.10 Economic Development by Decentralizing Government Employment

Urbanization is a global trend in terms of economic development stressing agglomeration economics. This has fostered concerns of economic inequality across geographies. A suggested policy measure in that regard is the decentralization of government employment. This has been argued to result in possible crowding-out and multiplier effects for studies based in the UK. A series of review in the UK have resulted in decentralization of a large number of government employed particularly following the most recent Lyons Review. Most recently, the Danish government has suggested a decentralization of about 3900 government jobs proposing that this might be a first step to secure economic development across Danish regions (see e.g. http://politik.tv2.dk/2015-10-01-faa-det-fulde- overblik-her-er-de-statslige-job-der-skal-flyttes). This asks the question, to which extent the lessons from UK studies can be implied directly into a Danish context to assess the policy of the Danish Government reflecting on differences in housing markets, commuting propensities and labor market regulations. What can be expected from an ex ante perspective from such policies in a Danish context?
Literature:
Faggio, G., 2015. Relocation of Public Sector Workers: Evaluating a place-based policy. SERC Discussion Paper 155, http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/textonly/SERC/publications/download/sercdp0155.pdf
Faggio, G., Overman, H., 2014. The Effect of Public Sector Employment on Local Labour Markets, Journal of Urban Economics 79, 91–107.


5.11 Mest Begunstigelsesprincippet (Most Favored Nation Principle) i GATT/WTO- systemet

Et bærende princip for handelsliberalisering i WTO er ’mest begunstigelses princippet’, der forpligtet medlemslande til at udstrække bilaterale toldnedsættelser til alle medlemslade af WTO. Derved undgås diskriminerende handelsliberalisering. Princippet kan gøres til genstand for flere interessante økonomiske analyser f. eks af princippets velfærdsteoretiske aspekter, ’free rider’ problemet for de lande, der uden modydelser kan eksportere til lavere toldsatser. På det administrative plan kan analyseres landes muligheder for manipulation med princippet gennem eksempelvis afgrænsningen af varebegrebet eller henvisning til national sikkerhed. Emnet relatere sig til en stadig ændring i toldsatser mellem lande – eksempelvis USA’s forhøjelser overfor Kina og EU i 2018-2019, hvorvidt disse følger MFN princippet og de forventede velfærdskonsekvenser. Desuden relaterer emnet sig til relationen mellem ’mest begunstigelses princippet’ i forhold til institutioner til regional handelsintegration som NAFTA, EU og CPTPP. Disse forhold kan empirisk undersøges via ’gravitations ligningen’ og lignende.
Litteratur:
Horn H., og P.C Mavroidis (2001), ‘Economic and Legal Aspects of the Most Favored Nation Clause’,  European Journal of Political Economy, 17, pp. 233-279.
Schwartz W.F. og A.O. Sykes, (1996), ‘Towards a Positive Theory of the Most Favored Nation Obligation and its Exceptions in the WTO/GATT system’, International Review of Law and Economics, 16, pp. 27-51.
Forudsætter: Det vil være en fordel at have fulgt faget ”International Økonomi”.

5.12 Human capital and Long-run Economic Growth

The effect of human capital on growth involves multiple channels. On the one hand, an increase in human capital can directly affect economic growth by enhancing labor productivity. On the other hand, human capital is an important input into R&D processes, thus increasing labor productivity indirectly by accelerating technological change. Furthermore, different types of human capital such as basic and higher education can play different roles in both production and innovation activities. The research should explore to what extent and which forms of human capital affected labor productivity in historical perspective. Alternatively, the research can investigate how human capital affected the process of innovation.       

Literature:
Squicciarini M. and N. Voigtlaender (2015), Human Capital and Industrialization: Evidence from the Age of Enlightenment, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 130, 1825-1883.

Cinnirella, F. and J. Streb (2017), The Role of Human Capital and Innovation in Economic Development: Evidence from post-Malthusian Prussia, Journal of Economic Growth, 22, 193-227.
5.13 Causes and effects of the demographic transition
The demographic transition is the change to an equilibrium characterised by low fertility and low mortality. Together with the industrial revolution, the demographic transition is one of the most important events in history. Understanding the socio-economic determinants which caused the demographic transition is therefore of great importance for a better understanding of long-run economic growth. The research could study the role of (i) human capital, (ii) health, (iii) labor markets, (iv) or cultural norms in the demographic transition. Short and long-run effects of the demographic transition constitute another research topic. 
Literature:       
Galor, O. (2012), The Demographic Transition: Causes and Consequences, Cliometrica, 6, 1-28.
Guinnane, T. (2011), The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists, Journal of Economic Literature, 49, 589-614. 
5.14 Refugee migrants and their impact on native workers: The Danish experience after WWII 
Today, almost 70 million people around the world have been forced from home. Among them are 25 million refugees (UNHCR, 2018). Confronted with these huge number of refugee migrants, there is a lively debate among policymakers in host countries whether and at what speed refugees assimilate and whether they are benefitting or harming native workers. Despite the high-policy relevance, there is still relatively little economic research on this population. Since refugee migration is not only a current phenomenon, it could be useful to analyze the economic impact of refugees in historical settings. One suggested research avenue for students is to (i) document the waves of refugee immigration to Denmark after WWII and (ii) to investigate how refugees affected labor market outcomes of native workers. Some interesting historical case studies for Denmark include the admission of Hungarian refugees after the Hungarian uprising in 1956 or the accommodation of Polish Jews between 1969-1972 following some anti-Semitic campaigns in Poland.
Literature:
Cortes, Kalena. 2004. “Are Refugees Different from Economic Immigrants? Some Empirical Evidence on the Heterogeneity of Immigrant Groups in the United States.” Review of Economics and Statistics 86 (2): 465-80.
Damm, Anna Piil. 2009. “Ethnic Enclaves and Immigrant Labor Market Outcomes: Quasi‐Experimental Evidence.” Journal of Labor Economics 27 (2): 281-314
Foged, M. and Peri, G., 2016. Immigrants' effect on native workers: New analysis on longitudinal data. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 8(2), pp.1-34.

5.15 Finanskrise og fastkurspolitik: Forværrede fastkurspolitikken finanskrisen i Danmark?

Danmark skulle forsvare fastkurspolitikken i efteråret 2008. Midt under den værste økonomiske krise verden har set siden den store depression i 1930erne, og på et tidspunkt, hvor de andre centralbanker sendte renterne i gulvet i et forsøg på at skabe vækst, hævede den danske nationalbank renten. Det var nødvendigt for at forsvare kronen. Skræmte investorer var begyndt at sælge deres danske værdipapirer for at søge sikker havn i mere likvide euroværdipapirer. Dette pressede kronekursen ned, og Nationalbanken blev derfor tvunget til at udvide rentespændet til ECB med hele 1,75 procentpoint for at gøre de danske værdipapirer mere attraktive. Det var først i slutningen af 2009, at rentespændet til ECB igen blev normaliseret. At hæve renten midt under den værste globale finanskrise i 70 år er selvsagt uheldigt. I 1931 (midt under den store depression) hævede den amerikanske centralbank også renten for at forsvare guldfoden (datidens fastkurssystem), og det er anerkendt blandt økonomiske historikere, at denne rentestigning var med til at forstærke depressionen i den amerikanske økonomi. På samme vis var den danske rentestigning i efteråret 2008 og den langvarige forøgelse af rentespændet over for eurozonen utvivlsomt medvirkende til, at krisen blev både dyb og lang i Danmark. I det danske tilfælde havde rentestigningen formentlig en ekstra negativ gennemslagskraft sammenlignet med USA i 1930erne. Det skyldes, at introduktionen af rentetilpasningslån havde gjort den danske økonomi særdeles følsom over for stigninger i renten. Omkring syv-otte pct. af de danske familier skulle refinansiere i slutningen af 2008, og den usikkerhed, der var omkring renten, fik formentlig mange af disse familier til at skære ind til benet. Det kan muligvis forklare, at nedgangen i dansk økonomi i 2008-2009 blev ekstra dyb.

Litteratur: 
Andersen, T.B., & N. Malchow-Møller, Økonomer: Vækstkrise forværret af fast kronekurs, Berlingske Business, 25-04-2016

Andersen, T.B., & N. Malchow-Møller, Innovations in mortgage finance and the onset of the Great Recession in a small open economy with a euro peg, Comparative Economic Studies 57: 711-734, 2015


5.16 Flydende versus faste valutakurser: En empirisk undersøgelse

Empiriske studier har dokumenteret, at lande med faste valutakurser har klaret sig meget dårligere gennem finanskrisen end lande med flydende valutakurser. Et forsigtigt skøn er, at de faste valutakurser har barberet omkring et procentpoint af væksten hvert år i perioden 2008-13. Ny forskning viser også, at recessioner typisk er efterfulgt af perioder med vedvarende lave BNP-niveauer og vækstrater. Forklaringen er, at recessioner kan forårsage kronisk skade på økonomien. Med et låneord fra fysik benævnes dette fænomen ”hysteresis”. Det vil derfor være interessant at opdatere eksisterende studier af sammenhængen mellem valutakursregime og vækst efter krisen med de nyeste data for at undersøge om forskellen i økonomiske vækst mellem 2008-13 stadigvæk kan ses i data, når man kigger på perioden 2008-17.

Litteratur:
T.B., Andersen, N. Malchow-Møller & J. Nordvig, Inflation targeting and macroeconomic performance since the Great Recession, Oxford Economic Papers 67: 598-613, 2015

5.17 Årsager og effekter af indkomstulighed

Der har i de seneste årtier været stigende ulighed i indkomsten i mange lande hvilket har øget interessen omkring årsagerne bag denne udvikling og dens betydning for økonomisk vækst. 
Et bachelorprojekt kunne indeholde en af følgende analyser:
Beskrive en eller flere teorier for øget ulighed og forsøge at teste deres validitet med en empirisk analyse
Beskrive en eller flere teorier for øget ulighed og forsøge at teste deres validitet med simulationer af en teoretisk model
Analysere sammenhænge mellem indkomstulighed og økonomisk vækst på tværs af forskellige landegrupper og over forskellige tidsperioder med en empirisk analyse
Analysere sammenhænge mellem indkomstulighed og ulighed i sundhed på tværs af forskellige landegrupper og over forskellige tidsperioder med en empirisk analyse
Beskrive forskellige mål for ulighed og analysere deres styrker og svagheder 
Litteratur: 
Alvaredo, F., Chancel, L., Piketty, T., Saez, E., & Zucman, G. (Eds.). (2018). World inequality report 2018. Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.
Barro, R. J. (2000). Inequality and Growth in a Panel of Countries. Journal of economic growth, 5(1), 5-32.
Bivens, J., & Mishel, L. (2013). The pay of corporate executives and financial professionals as evidence of rents in top 1 percent incomes. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 27(3), 57-78.
Corak, M. (2013). Income inequality, equality of opportunity, and intergenerational mobility. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 27(3), 79-102.
De Maio, F. G. (2007). Income inequality measures. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 61(10), 849-852.
Deaton, A. (2014). Inevitable inequality? Science  23, 344( 6186), pp. 783
Forbes, K. J. (2000). A reassessment of the relationship between inequality and growth. American economic review, 90(4), 869-887.
Galor, O., & Moav, O. (2004). From physical to human capital accumulation: Inequality and the process of development. The Review of Economic Studies, 71(4), 1001-1026.
Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2007). The race between education and technology: the evolution of US educational wage differentials, 1890 to 2005 (No. w12984). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Jones, C. I. (2015).Pareto and Piketty: The Macroeconomics of Top Income and Wealth Inequality. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29 (1): 29-46.
Ostry, M. J. D., Berg, M. A., & Tsangarides, M. C. G. (2014). Redistribution, inequality, and growth. International Monetary Fund.
Peltzman, S. (2009) Mortality Inequality." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 23 (4): 175-90.
Piketty, T., & Saez, E. (2014). Inequality in the long run. Science, 344(6186), 838-843.
Piketty, T., & Zucman, G. (2014). Capital is back: Wealth-income ratios in rich countries 1700–2010. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129(3), 1255-1310.



5.18 Er globaliseringsprocessen gået i stå?

Globalisering er et mangesidigt fænomen, der bredt udtrykker, at de enkelte landes økonomier blevet mere gensidige afhængige. Drivkræfterne bag globaliseringen er et fald i barriererne for mobilitet af varer, tjenester, serviceydelser og finans- og realkapital. Globaliseringsprocessen har historisk forløbet uens med perioder af tilbageslag. Der er tegn på, at den finansielle krise og recessionen i årene efter 2007 har bremset globaliseringen sammenlignet med årene forud. Dette kunne tolkes som at vi har nået en grænse for globalisering. Temaerne for det enkelte projekt kunne bl.a. være: (1) ’Udviklingen i verdenshandelen fra 1945’, (2) ’Eurokrisen og kapitalmobiliteten i EU’, (3) ’Migrationen i EU’, (4)’Ny-protektionismens instrumenter’ eller (5) ’Grænser for globalisering’ 
Litteratur:
Rodrik, D. (1997): Has Globalization Gone Too Far? Institute for International Economics, https://piie.com/bookstore/has-globalization-gone-too-far
Subramanian A. og M. Kessler (2013): ’The Hyperglobalization og Trade and Its Future’, Working Paper 13-6, Washington, Peterson Institute for International Economics. Er frit tilgængeligt på nettet.
Forudsætter: Det vil være en fordel at have fulgt faget ”International Økonomi”.


5.19 Har den fælles mønt stimuleret handelen mellem eurolandene?

Den fælles mønt fjerner valutakursusikkerheden i samhandelen mellem eurolandene. Da virksomhederne er riskoaverse, skulle man forvente at euroen har stimuleret handelen mellem Eurolandene. Spørgsmålet er imidlertid, om en sådan effekt kan spores i årene efter introduktionen af Euroen. Udgangspunktet for analysen kan være det teoretiske grundlag for en sammenhæng mellem valutakursusikkerhed og handel. Dernæst kan analyseres empirisk, hvorvidt der kan spores en effekt på handelen mellem Eurolandene af den fælles mønt. En ramme for den empiriske analyse kan være gravitationsmodellen med en dummy variable for medlemskab af Euroen. Samtidig kunne analysen inddrage den stigende tendens til e-handel internationalt og virtuelle valuta og hvorvidt dette underbygger eller forringer betydningen af en fælles mønt.
Litteratur:
ECB (2015): Virtual currency schemes – a further analysis. ECB, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/virtualcurrencyschemesen.pdf
Frankel, J. and Rose, A. (1998) ‘The endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria’ Economic Journal , 108, pp. 1009-1025.
De Grauwe, P. and Mongelli, F. (2005), Endogeneities of Optimum Currency Areas: What Brings Countries Sharing a Single Currency Closer Together?’ Working Pape, no. 468, European Central Bank, April.


5.20 Den demografiske udfordring i EU

Fertiliteten er meget lav i EU-landene, og før den seneste migrationsbølge fra lande uden for EU peger udviklingen mod en betydelig befolkningstilbagegang i flere medlemsstater. Aldersfordelingen vil samtidig forskydes mod en mindre andel af befolkningen i de aldersklasser, der traditionelt er i arbejde, og dermed er der en voksende bekymring over udsigten til et svindende skattegrundlag. Skulle disse forventninger blive til virkelighed, vil det få vidtrækkende følger for landenes økonomier. Især må der forudses negative virkninger på den generelle vækst samt den offentlige sektors muligheder for at finansiere sine aktiviteter.
Det vil være interessant, at få belyst disse spørgsmål omkring perspektiverne for den demografiske udvikling og de økonomiske konsekvenser, der kunne følge af den beskrevne udvikling. Dette kan basere sig på migration i de seneste demografiske prognoser eller alternativt med fokus på de økonomiske konsekvenser den demografiske udvikling givet de foreliggende prognoser.
Litteratur:
EU-Commission (2015): ‘The 2015 Ageing Report: Economic and Budgetary Projections for the 28 Member States‘, European Economy, No.3.

5.21 Flervareproduktion og international handelsteori

Det er åbenlyst, at mange virksomheder producerer mere end en vare samtidig med at virksomhederne deltager i international handel med disse produkter. På den baggrund er det forbavsende, at flervare-producerende virksomheder kun har en ringe plads i litteraturen om internationale handelsteori. I de senere år er der dog kommet interessante bidrag med flervareproduktion og handel baseret på modeller med oligopol eller monopolistisk konkurrence. En analyse med enten hovedvægten på en teoretisk modellering eller på en empirisk analyse af graden af flervarefabrikation i en stadig mere globaliseret økonomi kunne være et bidrag for at belyse den komplekse valg virksomheder med produktion af flere vare står overfor i en stadig mere international økonomi.
Litteratur:
En indgangsvinkel til literature kunne være artiklen Bernard, A.B., S., Redding and P. Schott (2010), ’Multiple- product Firms and Product Switching’, American Economic Review, 100 (1), 70-97 samt artiklen Eckel, C. And
P.J. Neary (2010), Multi-product Firms and Flexible Manufacturing in the Global Economy’, Review of Economic Studies 77, (1) 188-217.
Forudsætter: Det vil være en fordel at have fulgt faget ”International Økonomi”.

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